1) More than 3 in 4 Democrats (78%) said the court ruling made them more likely to vote in the fall. A slim majority of Republicans (54%) said the same.
2) Democrats are now leading on the generic polling question (“If the election were held today, would you vote for Democrat or Republican for the House”) 48% to 41% over Republicans, a remarkable 10-point swing since an NPR poll in April.
While these numbers may be cold comfort to many who see states — especially in the South — already moving to ban abortion, they suggest the court may have unwittingly shifted the debate mid- journey.
What is clear is that, for now, the decision has woken up the Democratic base to the stakes of the midterm elections. And that goes double for women.
The conclusion here is obvious: for the Democrats to have a chance, they need a significant margin among women – especially suburban women – because so many other swing groups, including independents, have a strong bias against them.
What’s much less clear is whether that anger and outrage can a) hold out through November and b) outweigh economic issues like inflation and gas prices when it does. is about what swing voters really care about.
Democrats in some districts and states are already on the air with TV ads hoping to capitalize on the furor over the court ruling. Watch the airwaves in the coming months to see if this continues. If so, there are grounds for concluding that the problem is displacing voters.
Point: This election still looks good for Republicans. The question now is whether the Roe decision can limit Democratic losses.
