Has BioCryst hit rock bottom? In search of the silver lining

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BioCryst (BCRX) may have missed analyst estimates in 1Q22, but JMP analyst Jonathan Wolleben is encouraged by progress on several fronts.

The company generated revenue of $49.9 million in the quarter, a 161.9% increase over the same period last year, but below the $51.4 million that Street had on your mind. Virtually all sales were driven by Orladeyo, the company’s FDA-approved treatment for hereditary angioedema (HAE).

BioCryst’s net loss also widened, to over $74 million, with EPS of -$0.40 also worse off than Wall Street’s call for -$0.37.

Management said its revenue forecast of more than $250 million for 2022 remains, a goal Wolleben believes is “achievable,” as does the company’s expectation of peak sales in excess of $1 billion. In fact, based on Orladeyo’s potential, Wolleben remains optimistic about the company’s prospects.

“We would be continued buyers as Orladeyo’s underlying launch momentum continues to look strong and HAE’s $1 billion opportunity alone represents a substantial upside, especially at current levels,” the company explained. ‘analyst.

These “current levels” explain a sharp drop in early April when the company suspended enrollment in three phase 2 trials evaluating its investigational drug, the oral factor D inhibitor BCX9930. The discontinuation was due to elevated serum creatinine levels observed in some patients. The FDA has now placed BCX9930 on partial hold; after reviewing the issue, the company believes that the elevated serum creatinine levels could be reduced at the 500mg BID dose.

Both developments are positive, says Wolleben, who is pleased that, “1) BCRX has found a potential explanation for serum creatinine elevations on ‘9930; 2) titration to a lower, but potentially equally effective, dose might solve the problem; and 3) the FDA opted for a partial rather than a full clinical stay. We thought the pullback for BCRX shares during the listing break was overblown due to the limited information at the time and the additional information points to a potential way forward.

The company plans to meet with regulators and discuss the way forward by the end of the third quarter.

With shares down about 60% from the February peak, Wolleben rates BCRX as an outperformer (i.e. a buy). Its price target of $25 implies that the stock will climb around 202% over the next 12 months. (To see Wolleben’s track record, Click here)

Overall, BCRX maintains a moderate buy relative to analyst consensus, based on 11 recent ratings. These include 7 buys and 4 catches. The shares are trading at $8.29, so the mid-price target of $17.40 suggests room for upside of around 110%. (See BCRX stock forecast on TipRanks)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The Content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.


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